Three Horizons

One of the better tools that we have worked with for engaging boards on the challenges of disruptive innovation is the Three Horizons tool.

The model

For topics such as considering the implications of the developments in artificial intelligence and the power of big data in an eco-system this is the most powerful framework, developed by the H3Uni, which focuses on providing the tools to help directors navigate uncertainty. The Three Horizons model looks at short, medium and longer term futures. At its simplest;  

  1. The short term Horizon 1 recognises that the way we are doing things today is always in decline.    
  2. The trickiest horizon is the medium term Horizon 2, but that is the transitional zone, and transition is always tricky. 
  3. The long term Horizon 3 acknowledges that the seeds of our long term future are evident today.  

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All three horizons are always present, but they need different techniques to be able to discuss the actions needed to safely navigate to a sustainable future.

We have used the Three Horizons technique to frame discussions in multiple boardrooms, at conferences and in sector wide brainstorming activities.

In practice

A sample of the in-conference use for a debate with Professor Mark Blyth, the highly engaging speaker and co-author ANGRYNOMICS, with his colleague Eric Lonergan. 

This conference was organised by Vichaar Manthan UK and Ravi Lakhani, the National Coordinator gives his thoughts on the contribution to the conference debate.

Bill Sharpe, Rosa Sommer (Future Stewards and Leaders’ Quest) and the international participants that Bill and Rosa brought together helped us design a route map for the Scottish accreditation and employment eco-system by considering essential questions:

1.

What is declining and how can we help it to decline well?

2.

Where are the disruptive technologies and how can we harness them to enhance the future, rather than to extend the life of what is declining?

3.

What is the future that you want to bring about, recognising that the seeds of the future are already evident in today’s eco-system?

Looking to the future

We have been engaging with Robert Pembleton at the Futures Institute at Edinburgh University, Sam Buckton at York University and many international colleagues from the Three Horizons family to discuss how to improve the accreditation systems we use today by using the ‘Three Horizons Thinking’.

  • What is declining How can we help it to decline well?
  • What is emerging How can we help it to emerge well?
  • What is the bright new dawn and how can we identify in H1 what will help us get to H3?
  • What will be our guiding star throughout?